UK economy unlikely to recover

This spring's green shoots are being increasing shown to have misplaced optimism, with economic conditions continuing to worsen within the UK - GDP continues to fall, and expectations of a recovery for next year remain muted.

While it's easy to just look at the UK in isolation, there are a couple of major economic pointers on the horizon that suggest the world's economy could suffer major set backs - even before a recovery has begun. And this is likely to bode ill for Britain, with existing downbeat expectations potentially proving to be optimistic if these factors play out.

The first is the credit bubble in China. So far, the Chinese economy has continued to grow strong - but it seems that rather than learn from the mistakes of the West, the Chinese are keen to repeat them. Yes, there's a credit bubble forming in the Chinese economy, as the government there encourages lending to such a degree that the IMF is already alarmed.

The second is the original engine of the credit crunch - the US real estate market. So far it has shown no real recovery, and what's worse, is that not only are repossessions (foreclosures) continuing to increase, they are not expected to peak until after August 2011, when the last big wave of ARMs - subprime mortgages - come up for renewal past their discount period.

These are not the only negative indicators - the IMF continues to warn that the world economy faces a deflationary spiral, that if borne out, could leave much of the West enduring an economic scenario equivalent to Japan's lost decades.

The UK has its own problems as well, not least due to the major debt bubble it's been sitting on for the past few years (it's not simply about house prices anymore). Lending in the UK is still suffering, with a mass withdrawal from the personal loans market, and such poor lending to business by the banks that Alaister Darling is now having to try and appear to be doing something about it. In the meantime, the IMF is warning that the UK's credit card debt could be crippling.

Any suggestion of an improving mortgage market should be taken in context of the fact that Spring and summer are traditionally the peak season - and what we've seen so far is still weak.

In short, economic conditions in the world remain fragile, but there are no positive indicators at present to suggest we're past the worst of it - anything but. There are still major dangers on the horizon, which leave little room for optimism for future economic conditions.

UK still in recession, despite claims

Edmund Conway in the Telegraph claims the recession is over, which is about as outrageously optimistic as you can get.

Much of this unfounded optimism seems focused on the fact that the property market has seen a positive bounce over this spring - mortgage lending is up, buyer enquiries are up, and the DCLG reported a 1.1% rise in house prices over April.

The problem is, spring has always been prime home buying time, so to extrapolate this into some form of economic recovery seems absurd. It really does look like a bounce, which means we should expect economic conditions to get a lot worse towards the winter - as the property market traditionally cools.

In the meantime, other economic indicators are looking increasingly adverse.

We've seen repeated claims that the European banks have not properly written down their losses. In the meantime, Eastern Europe looks like it could crash and drag a lot of Europe down with it through a chain reaction. Latvia is already in big trouble and could be the smoking gun to bring the rest of Eastern Europe down with it, and a number of central European banks with them. And that's before we address the issue of existing write-downs the ECB is already seriously worried about.

In the meantime, here in the UK, the whole banking sector continues to reshuffle in order to try and adapt to what still remains a crisis.

RBS is looking to split off business deals it claims as "unprofitable" into a separate group - in the meantime, as if the market hadn't already got itself into trouble creating complex debt instruments, this is exactly what is being proposed to get the UK taxpayer money back from semi-nationalised banks such as the RBS and Lloyds Group.


Among the building societies, the government is looking to allow changes to how they fund themselves in mass markets, in order to stop a repeat of the Dunfermline Building society crash. This is not least because others, not least the West Bromwich Building Society and others are also believed to be on the brink of collapse.

The Nationwide Building Society has already raised its mortgage rates sharply this week, close on the heels of other increases in mortgage rates last month. While the Nationwide remained one of the cheapest mortgage loan providers around, it no longer appears to be trying to outcompete other mortgage lenders.

If anything, the entire financial world still seems to be on a downward spiral. While the potential collapse of the banking sector appears to have been averted - certainly for now - the global economic picture is anything but healthy.

Stay tuned.

Nationwide BRM still competitive

It's unfair to see the recent criticism of the Nationwide Building Society's changes to its mortgage rates.

Yes, it's unfortunate that the Nationwide will no longer be putting new borrowers on it's existing Base Mortgage Rate (BMR), currently at 2.5% - but let's face it, the Nationwide has been pushing harder than any other mortgage lender to continue to provide mortgages to the market.

And no other mortgage lender was even coming close to beating Nationwide's BMR.

Despite the fact that the Royal Bank of Scotland, Halifax, Bank of Scotlant, and Loyds TSB, all have direct government support through part-privatisation.

This is not least receiving government money with the aim of improving lending to to mortgage and loans market.

And yet RBS, HBOS, and Lloyds are still charging very uncompetitive rates, as if they are making a particular effort not to lend, and instead just hoard the government's funding.

So it's left to a mutual like the Nationwide Building Society to offer the cheapest mortgages, the lowest loan rates, and even the lowest fees on credit card use.

And then when the Nationwide finally decides it needs to move new customers onto a new higher mortgage rate - one more comparative to rates offered by Barclays and HSBC, and still cheaper than RBS, HBOS or Lloyds, some journalists think this worthy of strong criticism?

Perhaps I'm biased - I have my mortgage with Nationwide, I have a Flexaccount current account with them, and also a credit card (though mostly for going on holiday with).

I used to be a financial advisor for a living so I like to think I can recognise a quality deal, and so far that is exactly what Nationwide have been delivering on - far more than any government-supported bank.

The Nationwide Building Society has been leading the lending market in trying to allow responsible people to borrow responsibly.

If a small increase in rates on just one of their products for just new borrowers is deserving of such criticism, then I can only wonder why these journalists haven't been more condemning of the lousy rates being offered by traditional high street banks.

UK car insurers see rise in fraud

While the economic crisis unroll, amidst the bank failures and credit crunch, one of the minor news items to emerge from this is the increasing problem of insurance fraud.

The trouble is, this also affects everybody because policy premiums are simply increased to pay for the costs of fraud.

We've already seen reported in the news that police are now reporting a record number of uninsured vehicles being taken off the road, with the current figure at around 150,000 a year and increasing.

On the other hand, a general escalation of insurance fraud, not least among car insurance claims.

It's important to realise that car insurance is a necessity, and for protecting the driver and the driver's interests. It's not just the car that's protected, it's you.

While most accidents in the UK are not fatal, people are still killed on the UK's roads every day. And even a seemingly minor injury, such as whiplash can develop into a much more serious medical condition.

Car insurance helps ensure repairs can be paid for so you're not out of pocket. And most also have health and death protection built into the policy. So if you are injured, you can be compensated, which is especially important if this stops you working for a while. And death cover at least provides income protection for your dependents and family.

In the meantime, I'm currently running a car insurance policy with Nationwide, and I chose it because it gives me the features I need, with the protection I need, and all at a very good price compared to other companies. Even still, I'm very close to being eligible for the over-50 discounts with Saga which should allow me pretty much the same level of cover, at an even cheaper price.

And that's the key insurance about insurance. People should look to ensure they have adequate protection first, instead of trying to save money getting the cheapest car insurance.

After all, where's the point of saving a few pounds, if in the event of a claim, it can cost you a lot more in expenses, lost time, and lost income, by having a cheap but limited policy, or even no car insurance policy at all?

Paying for failed banks twice

The Royal Bank of Scotland just announced a staggering £28 billion loss.

While we’ve seen a number of banks declare billions in losses over the past year, and the process still continues, the RBS loss is going down as the biggest corporate loss in UK history.

It’s unbelievable what’s happened to the banks, and what’s even more unfair is that it’s the tax payer who is paying for all the mistakes of the banks.

We’re not just paying in terms of government funding and asset swaps with the Treasury, but also as customers. Interest rates on savings accounts are dead, but mortgage and loan interest rates remain a lot higher than the Bank of England’s base rate.

Which means the banks are doing what they can to widen profit margins to recapitalise themselves, meaning that we’re ending up paying twice to save them from their own greed.

I currently have a Nationwide bank account which is paying less than 1% interest. On the one hand, at least I know Nationwide is one of the stronger financial institutions and isn’t under any threat of being part-nationalised like RBS and Lloyds, and doesn’t look likely to be nationalised any time soon.

Even still, as I’m saving for a deposit on a house, I don’t like the fact that my savings are no longer working as hard as they used to.

Hopefully the banking crisis will soon be over, and perhaps for the sake of the financial system, banks need to widen profit margins in order to bring this to an end sooner, rather than later.

But just don’t expect me to enjoy being part of the bail-out, when all I can see is the cost from it all, rather than the benefits.